Stanley Cup Final odds: Can Oilers complete comeback? (2024)

The Edmonton Oilers have gone from down 3-0 and against the ropes to one home win away from a Stanley Cup Final Game 7.

Florida, which led this series 3-0 going into Game 4, now needs a road win on Friday night in Alberta to avoid a Game 7. After not only winning Games 1-3, but controlling each of those meetings while outscoring Edmonton 11-4, Sergei Bobrovsky and the Panthers are now in danger of letting the first Stanley Cup in franchise history slip away.

Connor McDavid and the Oilers scored just two goals over the first 160 minutes (eight periods) of this series. But starting with the third period of Game 3, this team has piled up 15 goals in the last 140 minutes (seven periods). McDavid has led the way, breaking out for eight points (three goals, five assists) in Games 4 and 5 alone after he was held to three assists -- and no goals -- in Games 1-3.

Stanley Cup Final Futures Odds

Below are these teams' odds to raise the Stanley Cup. Florida remains heavily favored in the series, but DraftKings lists Edmonton (-125) as the favorite on Friday night against the visiting Panthers (+105).

History remains firmly on Florida's side, as the 1942 Toronto Maple Leafs are the only team in league history to win the Stanley Cup after falling behind 3-0.

But it's worth noting that Edmonton has already made it further than all but a few teams that dropped the first three games of the Stanley Cup Final.

Before the Oilers forced Game 6 on Tuesday night, just three teams, to be exact, had ever reached a Game 6 after falling behind 3-0 in a Stanley Cup Final. The most recent team to pull this off was the 2012 New Jersey Devils, who ended up losing that series in six games.

The other teams to win two in a row after going down 3-0 were the Detroit Red Wings in 1945 (they lost that series in seven games) and the Leafs in '42.

Why Edmonton Can Win Stanley Cup

Below are three reasons why the Oilers are a tempting play -- especially at odds as long as +280 at FanDuel -- to complete a historic comeback:

Florida Has No Answer for Connor McDavid

Speaking of historic, let's start with the 27-year-old Edmonton captain.

It would be an understatement to say that he has dominated this postseason. McDavid's torrid run through the playoffs briefly hit a speedbump early in this series, as Florida did an impressive job containing him in Games 1 and 2, holding him to just one point while outscoring Edmonton 7-1.

But McDavid is now up to 11 points (eight assists, three goals) through five games in the Stanley Cup Final. The bad worse news for Florida is that he appears to be getting stronger as the series goes along. McDavid has enjoyed a record-breaking playoff run, including an NHL-record 34 assists, easily eclipsing Wayne Gretzky's longstanding record of 31, which he set back in 1988.

Gretzky's playoff record for points -- 47, set in 1985 -- is also in jeopardy, especially if McDavid (42 points in 23 playoff games this year) and the Oilers can extend this series to seven games. McDavid's production has made him the heavy favorite (-165 at BetMGM) to win the Conn Smythe Trophy given to the NHL's playoff MVP.

More importantly, for Oilers' chances in this series, McDavid is red-hot at the right time. When he's playing this well, there's little that Florida -- or anyone -- can do to stop him.

Oilers' Power Play Comes Alive at the Right Time

The Panthers' success containing McDavid in Games 1 and 2 wasn't the only reason they were able to go up 3-0 in this series.

Another reason Florida led 3-0 was its effective handling of Edmonton's potent power play. The Oilers were just 0-for-10 with the man advantage through three games. But they're up to 3-for-18 on the series after breaking through with their first PP goal of the series in Game 4 and adding two more in Game 5.

Neither team has been excellent in this department, but Edmonton appears to have the PP advantage over Florida, which is just 1-for-16 on the power play, with its last PP goal coming in Game 2.

The Oilers' special teams advantage as the series has progressed is even more pronounced given the shorthanded goals they've scored in each of the last two games. It has all added up to a plus-five special teams advantage for Edmonton over the last 120 minutes (the Oilers were plus-two in Game 4 and plus-three in Game 5).

Even if Florida manages to do a better job containing McDavid the rest of the way, it will likely struggle to finish this series if its special teams play doesn't improve.

Oilers Goalie Stuart Skinner Has Stepped Up

The story of this series has been Florida goalie Sergei Bobrovsky, whose early dominance rightfully dominated the headlines as Edmonton fell into that massive 3-0 hole.

But while Bobrovsky's struggles in Games 4 and 5 have gotten plenty of attention, his Edmonton counterpart, Stuart Skinner, has flown under the radar despite back-to-back impressive performances. Edmonton's eight goals in Game 4 resulted in Skinner's outstanding effort (one goal allowed) going largely unnoticed.

He followed that up with a 29-save night on Tuesday, allowing just three goals despite relentless pressure down the stretch. Florida piled up 10 shots on goal in the third period alone, but Skinner stopped all but one of them to keep Edmonton on top.

Skinner getting hot at just the right time is a big reason the Oilers are not only still alive in the series, but a real threat to complete a historic comeback.

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